I'm finding lately that traders are buying stocks earlier and earlier into catalyst. Some stocks start running 3-4+ months before their catalyst dates. If you look at the charts of DVAX, HEB and ZGNX you can see their price and volume increasing. With that said I've starting looking at some Q1-2013 catalysts to trade to try and get in before the stock start to become to volatile and crowded. The 3 stocks I am focusing on have already been metioned in various tweets/article/website by established biotech traders and have already started some sort of run up, showing that if you really want to maximize profits you need to look beyond Q1-2013, but the main issue with that strategy is the risk of dilutions and other macro economic issues could dampen the run up. So on to the 3 stocks I'm looking at.
ATRS: Antares Pharmaceutical
Catalyst: NDA filing for Vibex MTX
PR: http://www.antarespharma.com/files/9413/4443/5328/Antares_Q22012_earnings.pdf
Vibex MTX is an auto injection system being developed to treat rheumatoid arthritis (RA), which accroding to Antares data is affects approximately 2.1 million persons in the US alone. ATRS has 35 million in cash equivalents which should last deep in Q2-2013 based on cash burn rates. Chart below is for reference, I'm not a TA or chart reader, I will be watching to see if it moves above the 50 day MA on strong volume this week.
ZGNX: Zogenix
Catalyst: PDUFA 3/1/2013 Zohydro ER
PR: http://ir.zogenix.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=220862&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1714820&highlight=
Zogenix's focus is on developing products for the treatment of central nervous system disorders and pain. Zohydro, their leading product candidate (formerly ZX002) is a 12-hour extended-release formulation of hydrocodone without acetaminophen for the treatment of chronic pain requiring opioid therapy. ZGNX completed the phase 3 trial last year with positive results, with the trial succesfully meeting its primary efficacy endpoint. There are likely two catalysts, the PDUFA with a date of 3/1/2013 and a adcom yet to be schedule. With 44 million in cash equivalents I don't expect dilution in the near future. Stock is up 31% since August 9th, so that is my only watch out, but based on the chart below we should see a push past $3 in the coming months.
RPTP: Raptor Pharmaceuticals
Catalyst: PDUFA 1/30/2013 RP-103
PR: http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/RPTP.O/key-developments
Raptor is a biopharmaceutical company with a product pipeline that may advance therapeutic options for eight different indications and includes potential for product launch within the next eight months. Their leading product candidate is RP-103 for the potential treatment of nephropathic cystinosis. RP-103 is an investigational drug candidate, Cysteamine Bitartrate Delayed-release Capsules (RP103) with a PDUFA date of 1/30/2013. At the same time RP-103 is under review by the EMA, and the Company expects a decision in the first half of 2013, adding a second catalyst that could drive the price upward as we head into Q4. In clinical trials RP-103 met the clinical trial's sole primary endpoint of non-inferiority compared to Cystagon. Raptor recently completed a public offering and now has about 45 million in cash equivalents.
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/RPTP.O/key-developments/article/2399333
Two catalysts upcoming and a strong cash position, I will be watching to enter this week.
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